By Ali Tranghanda
KOMPAS.com — Indonesia property market is experiencing a significant rise in the last three years. Development property projects was the last few years. However, that is not the case; bubble over value.
There is a difference in principle in the delivery of secondly that term. Indonesia property market fundamentals is very different from the property market in other countries. That's what's forgotten by the World Bank.
Some fundamental things that won't provide an impact bubble in Indonesia include:
-Property market in Indonesia is experiencing an increase in demand and the high price of more growth due to a natural cycle of the property that is in the rise. In 2009, Indonesia entered the stage of property cycles of acceleration and is expected to reach the highest point in 2013 with the possibility of a slowing market. This slowdown has been felt to enter early 2013 with starting price growth slowed and depletion of new projects built relatively much compared to previous years.
-The high increase in the MORTGAGE market, consumer demand picture, especially the end user because of 75 per cent MORTGAGE is the end user's user. Thus, the consumer market is relatively more real than market investors which is a pseudo market. However, investors also perceived market activity began to wane.
-The role of consumer investors strongly influenced an increase in the property market. However, entering the market relatively 2013, has already indicated saturation because the price was too high so the goes over value. Once again, over the value, not the bubble.
Too high a price in both the primary cause of market equilibrium was not reasonable because prices in the secondary market turns lower. Over value occurs when prices in the primary market than the price difference occur secondary to 15 to 20 percent. This causes the market will move into a new market balance in 2013.
-A significant price increase occurs only in the segment of medium-sized top. This happens especially in the sectors of the landed residential, apartments and office rental rates, and only occurs in some locations. Thus, it cannot describe the property market as a whole.
-View from the side of banking credit, the bad debt ratio is still below 3 per cent with the ratio of credit to the overall credit property still under 15 percent. Thus, it is still too early to mention the property market is experiencing a bubble.
Other things and most importantly distinguishes Indonesia property market with property markets in other countries is that Indonesia's property market is dominated by local markets are so strong. This is in contrast with the market, China, Singapore and Viet Nam, as well as other neighbouring countries that are experiencing a bubble because the property market more overrun by foreigners so that, when there is a crisis in their home country, then it will have an effect on property values in the country.
-The opening of the tap massive foreign investment in China has resulted in an impact bubble for a property in the country of origin. The benchmark price is a benchmark price by purchasing power from abroad are more so the local market cannot be bought. This is what a bubble is actually, when price range that occurs is very high.
Different again with sub-prime mortgage cases in the United States that cannot be equated with the case in Indonesia and pretty much different because MORTGAGE credit fundamentals in Indonesia is still relatively conventional. In America, the MORTGAGE market has traded many times in stock derivatives system so prices became more than the original. When the stock market plummeted, then the property bubble will erupt and hit the housing market there.
Market saturation
Entering the year 2013, the property market is experiencing a slowdown in the segment of medium-specific. The market participants, in particular developers and investors, has begun to feel a relative saturation the market in this segment. Therefore, at this time the market began to shift to the middle market with the end user markets catch a lot more.
An increase in the property market this high indeed affect the increase of land provided for secondary market down. Because in this case, the Government should immediately prepare mechanisms for land bank (land bank) for low income communities (MBR) with instruments other subsidies, including public housing savings (tapera) so that this aspect of affordability will be achieved.
However, once again, a World Bank statement declaring Indonesia's property market has experienced a bubble need not be agreed upon. Need a deep observation from the World Bank against the local market so that Indonesia is not limited to the written data, but Indonesia's property market characteristics differ greatly with other countries.
(The writer is the Director of the Indonesia Property Watch)
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